Quick look at 2009 season

Twelve months ago we all declared Ohio State the clear favorite for the 2008 Big Ten Championship. A 35-3 drubbing in Troy and a 4th quarter collapse at home later, it’s clear that the Buckeyes aren’t quite the untouchable powerhouse that we have been led to believe. So maybe it isn’t such a bad thing that there is no clear favorite for the 2009 Big Ten crown. With several teams just a filled hole away, here’s a look at how things are shaking out and what they can do to stake their claim:

Sure-Fire Contenders

PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS: 7-1 (11-1)
Returning Starters: 10 (5 Offense, 5 Defense)

Initially reluctant to put a team with just 10 returning starters as my early pick for 2009, but that is slightly misleading, and this is a loaded team. Darryl Clark returns as the leagues best quarterback, and the one-two punch of Greene/Royster should be even better. The Lions have, hands down, the best defensive line in the league and one of the best in the country. Just one of three starters in the linebacking unit return, but that’s a bit misleading. Navorro Bowman was the best of the three, and is returning for his second year. All-American Sean Lee is back after sitting out 2008 with an injury, and the third spot will be filled by one of a host of talented canidates.
They’ll be the favorites if they…reload on the offensive line and find a couple of solid wideouts. 3 of 5 starters on the OL graduate, but solid canidates are in place. It will be tough to match last years efforts, but even a solid group will allow the backfield to run wild. The ageless trio of Norwood, Williams, and Butler is finally gone, but this is a run oriented team. This team just needs a couple of solid receivers to step up. The secondary initially looks a bit concerning as well, but with such a talented front seven, the DB’s will be absolutely fine.
Needs to step up: WR Graham Zug

10/26/09 Iowa
11/3/09 @ Illinois
10/17/09 Minnesota
10/24/09 @ Michigan
10/31/09 @ Northwestern
11/7/09 Ohio State
11/14/09 Indiana
11/21/09 Michigan State

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES: 7-1 (10-2)
Returning Starters: 13 (6* Offense, 7 Defense)

You can’t ever count out the program that has won atleast a share of the Big Ten title for four straight seasons. It could have been more than a share if Todd Boeckman was more involved in the offense this past year, but the Buckeyes end up in much, much better shape this year because of it.
They’ll be the favorites if they…improve on the lines and limit turnovers. Can’t put it too much more black and white than that. You can’t blame Beanie Wells for subpar stats versus Penn State, the Lion D-Line had their way with the Buckeye O-Line in that one. Starting true frosh Michael Brewster for much of 2008 will pay dividends, and having Mike Adams back from injury is huge. 3 of 4 starters on the defensive line return. Bottomline, if these guys want to win the Big Ten title, they can’t get it handed to them upfront again on November 7th. As for turnovers, they lost the battle in their two losses five-to-one.
Needs to step up: RB Jamaal Berry

9/26/09 Illinois
10/3/09 @ Indiana
10/10/09 Wisconsin
10/17/09 @ Purdue
10/24/09 Minnesota
11/7/09 @ Penn State
11/14/09 Iowa
11/21/09 @ Michigan

Next Step Down

IOWA HAWKEYES: 5-3 (8-4)
Returning Starters: 14 (6* Offense, 8 Defense)

Iowa loses just enough to keep them out of the “Sure-Fire Contenders” category. These cats were probably playing better than anyone in the Big Ten at the end of the year, but their forte on defense was stopping the run and the two men in the middle who that starts with, Mitch King and Matt Kroul, both depart. A suprise return from Shonn Greene and the Hawkeyes are instantly shot into the first tier of the Big Ten.
They’ll have a chance if they… find above average replacements for King and Kroul, and Shonn Greene makes a suprising return for his senior year. Otherwise, there is no chance.
Needs to step up: DT Karl Klug

9/26/09 @ Penn State
10/10/09 Michigan
10/17/09 @ Wisconsin
10/24/09 @ Michigan State
10/31/09 Indiana
11/7/09 Northwestern
11/14/09 @ Ohio State
11/21/09 Minnesota

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS: 6-2 (9-3)
Returning Starters: 15 (7 Offense, 8 Defense)

Though he hasn’t been the most productive, Brian Hoyer’s leadership will be missed and Javon Ringer is irreplacable. The good news is that all receivers return, 3 of 5 on the offensive line return, and everyone sans Otis Wiley returns in the back 7. This secondary should be one of the nations best and Greg Jones is among the best linebackers. Just 16 seniors graduated, 14 on scholarship, so that is a promising note.
They’ll have a chance if they…fill some holes on the defensive line and find a few solid runningbacks to split carries. The Spartans main weakness in 2008 was run defense, and now there are even more holes than last season. Tyler Hoover will look to fill in for Brandon Long, Michael Jordan for Justin Kershaw. But the big question is at nose tackle, where two juniors battle it out in Oren Wilson and Antonio Jeremiah. Wilson is a hard worker, but Jeremiah is the one guy on the defensive line who has the potential to be the star that the spartans need. No one player will replace Javon Ringer, but there are bodies-a-plenty and it will more than likely be a runningback by committee approach.
Needs to step up: NT Antonio Jeremiah

09/26/09 @ Wisconsin
10/03/09 Michigan
10/10/09 @ Illinois
10/17/09 Northwestern
10/24/09 Iowa
10/31/09 @ Minnesota
11/14/09 @ Purdue
11/21/09 Penn State

MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS: 3-5 (7-5)
Returning Starters: 18 (10 Offense, 8 Defense)

As much as I would love to call 2008 a fluke (and it was in some aspects), the thing to take into account was that it was a very young team, and they return a whopping 18 starters (most in the Big Ten) as a result. The only loss on offense is TE Jack Simmons, Tow-Arnett should be able to come into a larger roll and freshman to be Ra’Shede Hageman could play right away. VanDeSteeg graduates but the entire secondary returns. Eight wins sounds about right for the Gophers. I still have some questions about coaching, or they would be one spot higher in my rankings.
They’ll have a chance if they….grow up fast. They were young last year, they will still be young this year. The brightest days are ahead, and talent is coming in fast, but if they want to compete for a title…this group needs to come of age quickly.
Needs to step up: DE Raymond Henderson

9/26/09 @ Northwestern
10/3/09 Wisconsin
10/10/09 Purdue
10/17/09 @ Penn State
10/24/09 @ Ohio State
10/31/09 Michigan State
11/7/09 Illinois
11/21/09 @ Iowa

Middle-Tier

ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI: 3-5 (5-7)
Returning Starters: 17 (9 Offense, 8 Defense)

The initial stat that stands out to me is 17 starters. Losing Rashard Mendenhall was without a doubt the biggest reason for the dropoff, and developing a rushing attack will be the biggest key to the coming year. Good thing is 4 of 5 are back on the offensive line. This team isn’t Rose Bowl bound, but it should be improved. It should have had more wins in 2008, and with 17 returning starters I like their chances to win those games in 2009. Looks like 7 or 8 wins for the Illini.
Needs to step up: RB Jason Ford

9/26/09 @ Ohio State
10/3/09 Penn State
10/10/09 Michigan State
10/17/09 @ Indiana
10/24/09 @ Purdue
10/31/09 Michigan
11/07/09 @ Minnesota
11/14/09 Northwestern

WISCONSIN BADGERS: 3-5 (7-5)
Returning Starters: 12 (7 Offense, 5 Defense)

Wisconsin should have had much better record in 2008, but some coaching blunders at the hands of Bret Beilema did them in. And with just 12 starters returning, and some big losses among that group, I don’t think this program gets back on track until atleast 2010. Five of the front seven graduate and three of five on the offensive line are gone. This isn’t a good sign for a team that prides itself on controlling the line of scrimmage. John Clay and the offense should take a step up, but with Castillas and Shaughnessy graduating it’s hard to imagine the defense won’t take a step back. This is probably the hardest team to get an idea on in the conference this coming year. Look for a similar record to the 2008 campaign.
Needs to step up: DE Louis Nzegu

9/26/09 Michigan State
10/3/09 @ Minnesota
10/10/09 @ Ohio State
10/17/09 Iowa
10/31/09 Purdue
11/7/09 @ Indiana
11/14/09 Michigan
11/21/09 @ Northwestern

NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS: 5-3 (9-3)
Returning Starters: 13 (5 Offense, 8 Defense)

First off, let me say that I had the Cats winning 8 games this year and I am not that guy who predicts that they finish at the bottom of the league every year. I’m really split on the team this year. The losses, though not big in numbers, are big in quality. Bacher, gone. Sutton, gone. Peterman, gone. Gill, gone. But the Wildcats won their last two games without Sutton, and senior-to-be Mike Kafka looks promising. When it all comes down to it this team will have difficulty reach nine wins again, but they should get to their second straight bowl game.
Needs to step up: RB Stephen Simmons

9/26/09 Minnesota
10/3/09 @ Purdue
10/17/09 @ Michigan State
10/24/09 Indiana
10/31/09 Penn State
11/7/09 @ Iowa
11/14/09 @ Illinois
11/12/09 Wisconsin

Bottom Dwellers

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES: 2-6 (3-9)
Returning Starters: 11 (6 Offense, 5* Defense)

It’s sort of ironic that the program that was so long a model of consistency and bore is now unscoutable and unpredictable. The changes in scheming were dramatic. I knew that, my grandma knew that, you should have known that. So it is crucial and important to note that all of these players will be going through their second year in the new system. That alone should lead to a better product in 2009. Heralded freshmen Tate Forcier will most certainly be an improvement over either Steven Threet or Nick Sheridan, and that is particularly crucial in the Spread-Option offense. There will be improvement, but these Wolverines still appear to be a couple of years away.
Needs to step up: QB Tate Forcier

9/26/09 Indiana
10/3/09 @ Michigan State
10/10/09 @ Iowa
10/24/09 Penn State
10/31/09 @ Illinois
11/7/09 Purdue
11/14/09 @ Wisconsin
11/21/09 Ohio State

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS: 2-6 (4-8)
Returning Starters: 12 (4 Offense, 8 Defense)

Purdue will push Indiana as the Big Ten’s worst team, but I just can’t push myself to put them below an Indiana team that they routed 62-10 to finish the season. Like him or not, you can expect the Boilers to lose a certain edge without Joe Tiller. Justin Siller is going to be a good player, but he doesn’t have much help. This offense, plain and simple, lacks playmakers. The loss of Anthony Heygood is a big blow. More positively, the back four return and two linebackers that started as freshmen (Joe Holland and Chris Carlino) will have another year under their belt.
Needs to step up: WR Keith Smith

10/3/09 Northwestern
10/10/09 @ Minnesota
10/17/09 Ohio State
10/24/09 Illinois
10/31/09 @ Wisconsin
11/7/09 @ Michigan
11/14/09 Michigan State
11/21/09 @ Indiana

INDIANA HOOSIERS: 1-7 (3-9)
Returning Starters: 17 (10 Offense, 7 Defense)

Admittedly, 17 returning starters is rather impressive stat. But this was the Big Ten’s worst, least-talented team last year, probably by a good margin. And you can look for that title to hold true again in 2009. Kellen Lewis is coming off of his worst year in cream and crimson, and the loss of one of their only gamebreakers, Marcus Thigpen, is huge. A rough schedule doesn’t help their cause.Terry Hoeppner was beginning to build a solid foundation with “The Seven Blocks of Limestone”, but I just can’t see Bill Lynch doing anything for Indiana in 2009, or 2010…if there is a 2010.
Needs to step up: RB Darius Willis

9/26/09 @ Michigan
10/3/09 Ohio State
10/17/09 Illinois
10/24/09 @ Northwestern
10/31/09 @ Iowa
11/7/09 Wisconsin
11/14/09 @ Penn State
11/21/09 Purdue